Lake Okeechobee Cmte. Report

[N. Cook]

These figures say it all:

Lake level is 10.23 feet now
At end of the coming dry season:

10% chance the lake will be at 13 ft.
25% chance the lake will be at 12 ft.
50% chance the lake will be at 10 ft.
25% chance the lake will be at 8 ft.
10% chance the lake will be at 7 ft.

Without a monster rain event north of the lake these figures will hold.

The 35% chance the lake will be 7 to 8 feet is scary, especially for the water supply side of the equation. A second drought next summer would go into unrecorded territory and have substantial negative impact on the population centers.

The irony is that the south east coastal areas have too much water from drenching rains.....the District is feverishly trying to keep the canals and whatever storage there is filled.....even allowing natural backflow into the lake through the locks and structures. On the west coast all the way up the drainage there is an extreme drought and in the Kissimmee Valley a moderate drought. The low rainfall in the Kissimmee Valley, the major source of water for the lake, is the culprit for the potential problem next year.

Ducks will be out there, but airboats will even have to be careful not to ground on the hard sharp rocky ledges in the lake.

[Ross R]

Its too bad this storm did not come a little further west... all that rain is getting dumped all over the ocean.

[over/under]

[QUOTE=N. Cook;35145]These figures say it all:

Lake level is 10.23 feet now
At end of the coming dry season:

10% chance the lake will be at 13 ft.
25% chance the lake will be at 12 ft.
50% chance the lake will be at 10 ft.
25% chance the lake will be at 8 ft.
10% chance the lake will be at 7 ft.

The low rainfall in the Kissimmee Valley, the major source of water for the lake, is the culprit for the potential problem next year.

Sorry , But the major culprit is the management. It is not a secret that they let to much water out last year prior to a hurricane -rain season that wasnt. I really wish we could put more pressure on these decision makers and hold them accountable. Unfortunatly to much special interest and political BS.

[Captmako]

[QUOTE=N. Cook;35145]the major culprit is the management. It is not a secret that they let to much water out last year prior to a hurricane -rain season that wasnt. I really wish we could put more pressure on these decision makers and hold them accountable.

There's alot of truth to this OU. As soon as the "More active than usual hurricane season" gets handed down by the weather service, the pumps are fired up and the water's put to sea. Then, like last year, the hurricane/rain events never materialize and we're left with a horrible thirst.... BUT, they're darned if they do, darned if they don't. As I learned in the fishing industry; 'Sometimes the rumors of fish, hurt the market just as much as fish actually hitting the dock'. In a panic, everyone throws caution to the wind and scrambles...

[N. Cook]

o/u....did you not read the outside engineers report on the Hoover Dike...."a clear and present danger". Did you not read about the critisism the USACE came under because the levees failed in New Orleans...?

Those two events set the District and the Corps in motion to lower the lake with a new "schedule" an average of one foot versus the old schedule.

One foot was taken off the lake, or actually just allowed to naturally go as evaporation and a minimum flow will do it in a few weeks....

That foot would have been gone long ago under the current conditions....water is acutally back flowing into the lake from the St. Lucie basin and the EAA now.

The lake has been managed too high for years to great detriment to the habitat for ducks and fish....we fought to get it down and were glad to "win" even with a back door way via the engineers' emergency report.

A low lake every few years is important and we expect the lake to be much healthier now when the water rises...as it will....The vegetation is coming back, the collodial suspension of solids that were killing the lake are now rooted with grass. I suggest folks go out and see the lake.....it is in its natural shoreline for dry periods....not at all a disaster, to the contrary, the artifacts of the Indians and early settlers are common on what was the normal shore.

The people who have politically kept the lake too high....water supply...ie urban districts and agriculture are crying the blues.....but it is time water supply other than the lake be developed and the lake managed at least a little for habitat and the creatures.

[over/under]

Newton, I agree with some of what you are saying but not all. The lake was not lowered by a mere foot it was closer to 3. We who live in or around the dumping lane (st Lucieriver) were pleading for it to stop. I don`t claim to have all the answers but there has been and still is alot of BS in governing the water level. I honestly dont think the level would have been dropped an inch if a dike problem did not exist.
The lake has so many other problems as well ,with the runoff from central florida and the great enviromental decision to destroy the natural kissimee ,these are the things I think these people should be held accountable for. the main problem is most of the higher ups CANNOT be fired.
As for seeing the lake I don`t think there are many people On this forum who see it as much as I(in and around season). And I invite you to come for a plane ride to see it first hand not stand on the dike or go for a boat ride. I frequently fly the lake this time of year to scout and the fact is that brazzillian pepper trees are covering the areas that we used to call swamps or marsh. So even if and when the water returns the so called vegitation is not "duck friendly" normal time from north county around lake a few low flies and back is 2-2.5 hours. I have pics from the last four years stored on my computer and the lake is getting worse as far as Marsh habitat is concerned.

One more thing to ponder what happens when all the sediment settles to the bottom and the level of water (above sea level) stays the same? Well in my book you can still dry a lake. If the bottom of the lake is rising and the water level stays the same or even goes down you are losing habitat. Also only in very few places(small pockets) do you see underwater vegataion really thriving. Even the year of 05 after the storms, aside from the south end of the lake, submerged vegatation was thick.
Ben.

[binellishtr]

I do know this....I am there almost every weekend ...I personally witnessed more than 1 ft of water being let out of the lake ..
They have and are spraying the non native cattails in the marsh...
More hydrilla is growing then I have seen in a long time.....The de mucked areas(which do not amount to much) have all been covered with some water, and native plants are growing again.....
CLEAR water exists in more areas then last year ever had...
IMO, things are looking up for the lake. Just pray someone doesn't screw it up and flood it agagin.

[N. Cook]

The schedule is complex.....I wonder if anyone can really manipulate it totally right....but both the old and the new schedule called for getting the lake down to about 11 to 12 feet to start the rainy season/storm season. That is why the lake was let down the two feet you are noting....always has been brought down to prepare for the coming rainy season inflow....What happen is there was no inflow, the Kiss. was not flowing for well over 200 days...a record.

What was expected to happen, and usually does, is there is inflow, moderate during regular years, excessive with hurricane years, that moves the level up....the managers let water out at a pace they believe will let the lake top out at 15 feet or so at the end of the rainy period (a foot or even two more feet approaching 17 was acceptable under the old schedule, that is where the "one foot lower" really comes in.)

I have had to explain to the folks trying to stop the damage to the estuaries that the new schedule was of absolutely no help, and because of the need to react faster to keep that extra foot off the lake they would simply get hit faster. This little factoid was a bit hidden in the Corps presentation....easy to miss.

With a regular rainy season, the lake would have been 12 feet or more today....with a really wet season a couple of feet higher and, because of the low level start last spring, probably no estuary damaging releases all summer. If back pumping had been allowed starting a couple of months ago (instead of just letting the same water run back into the lake from the south canals as it is now), there would be another foot on the lake. But the new Gov. Board members voted it down. Going into the dry season at 13 to 15 feet would have been nice. Mother nature decided that was not to be.